Quantitative Techniques for Business Project Essay

Quantitative Techniques for Business Project - Essay Example This assignment studies behavior of stock prices at daily interval for the period from July 20, 1988 to July 20, 2009. Figure 1, 2 and 3 illustrate the dynamic character of stock prices respectively of companies Microsoft, Intel, and H&P. The graphical views tell us that these three stocks exhibited exponential growth from the beginning until the middle of 2000. All three stocks later dropped in prices by 30%-% 40% in about 24 moths. They never achieved the previous peak. Microsoft maintained stable prices for the rest of the period while Intel and Hewlett & Packard went through bumpy roads. The dynamic character of Apple stock was different from that of previously mentioned stocks. Figure 4 shows the asymptotic behavior of Apple stock prices from the beginning of the observation period until the middle of 1999. In the latter period, Apple stock price exhibited exponential growth until was hit by the global financial crisis of 2008. Apple’s sudden growth after the mid-1999 can be associated with the release of new products and services. The exponential growth of Microsoft, Intel and H&P stock prices from 1988 until 2000 should be contributed to the development of digital technology of that time. Thus, we can conclude that the innovation and new products influence the rise in stock prices. At the same time, irrespective of innovation, the overall market condition also causes influence on the stock prices. Figure 5 depicts S&P 500 index values from September 26, 2008 to November 21, 2008. In 41 days, the index dropped by 34%. This incident is named as the Global Financial Crisis of 2008. It caused a drop in prices of Microsoft, Apple, Intel and H&P stocks respectively by 27.69%, 35.61%, 31.13%, and 27.55%. This assignment is using time-series data of stock prices. Let Pt be the price of an asset at a time index t and P t-1 at a time t-1. We assume